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The future

Chas

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I don't know about the rest of you but I find this prediction frightening.
Robert Goldman with Alli Berman.31 May at 15:14 ·

FUTURE PREDICTIONS:

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared a...nd they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
 
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Interesting read. Two small parts I find quite interesting -

Tesla and other manufacturers. VW et al had it coming. They charge a premium for what is essentially the same item. They also still seem to have the mightier-than-though attitude. You want a sat-nav with that £30k car? Sure, sir - that'll be another £2k on top of it. Sorry - you wanted parking sensors front and back? That'll be another £700.

When the time comes that we buy a basic, yet functioning shell and we can get updates overnight from and we essentially have a new car with new features in the morning - I'll be a happy man. When the features in your car are simply software updates then it becomes easier to apply, cheaper for the consumer.


3D printing and jobs -
I find this quite interesting to. I have a 3D printer and have printed anything and everything. From the useless to trinkets, toys my 6 year old daughter designed (and sells to her friends!) to functional things around the house. This will lead to a loss of manufacturing base for sure.
The process for me printing something is to go to http://www.thingiverse.com/, find the item I want, download the file and press print. As easy as that.
Printers have moved on since I bought mine a year ago - they are now internet connected so you can brows that website from the printer. The time will come when they will be in households and, just like the microwave was the thing of posh people back in the day, they will be common place.

Two things that made me sit back and think they're going to change how we manufacture -
My at-the-time 6 month old daughter was crawling around the house slamming doors. I was not long before the fingers got trapped. I searched, downloaded and printed one of those baby-proof door stops in about 15-20 minutes.
I did not need to go to the shop and buy one which was made in a factory by people earning money.

The other was an over-priced cooker ignition button which was broken. 10 minutes measuring it, 10 on the computer, 10 to print. It's now available, for free, for someone else to download.
I took money away from the manufacturer, the salesman and the postoffice.


I think the coming years are going to be interesting. Exciting if you can ride the wave. I don't think those in manufacturing will have a problem for a long time - things still need to be made - but it's certainly changing.


Disruptive - that's what they call the current trend of tech :)
 
This all looks very familiar. a few decades ago people were predicting that by 2000 all our jobs would have been replaced by robots and computers and that we would all have loads of leisure time as a result, the world would be a better place as we all could relax and enjoy ourselves in a utopian wonderland (or nightmare wasteland, depending on which version you read) well, it doesn't seem to have happened, sure the world has changed, work has changed, leisure has changed, but we're all still slaves to work and we still work as hard as ever, it's just a little bit different
 
Interesting article Chas, though it may not happen in the timescales he suggests, or even happen at all. What this doesn't take into account is human resistance to change. What do we do for work, how do we get the money we need for the food to survive? And what about hackers? With the whole world computerised, terrorists won't need explosives. One good virus attack and we are looking at a pile of junk or a pile up on the motorway.

One thing strikes me, things like autonomous cars won't work off road. They will be made for paved roads, and while there are other road users about, the accident rate will increase first before it decreases.

The article is talking pure, it will be interesting to see what actually happens once it is subject to chaos and unintended outcomes.

Food for thought though.
 
None of it does happen in the time scales predicted. Remember that 16 years ago I should have been flying to work. Alas, I am not.
 
Interesting article Chas, though it may not happen in the timescales he suggests, or even happen at all. What this doesn't take into account is human resistance to change. What do we do for work, how do we get the money we need for the food to survive? And what about hackers? With the whole world computerised, terrorists won't need explosives. One good virus attack and we are looking at a pile of junk or a pile up on the motorway.

One thing strikes me, things like autonomous cars won't work off road. They will be made for paved roads, and while there are other road users about, the accident rate will increase first before it decreases.

The article is talking pure, it will be interesting to see what actually happens once it is subject to chaos and unintended outcomes.

Food for thought though.
All that is quite right Rich, I should have said at the beginning if true I find this prediction frightening. Hasn't there already been a terrorist hacking attack, I can't remember any details but I'm sure I read about that a few weeks ago. There has always been human resistance to changes but they happen anyway, I'm sure with every advancement there have been objections, colour television? nah it'll never catch on, if God had meant us to fly he would never have given us the railways, that sort of thing.
As for autonomous cars not working off road, won't be a problem off roading will be banned and all green lanes closed.
 
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None of it does happen in the time scales predicted. Remember that 16 years ago I should have been flying to work. Alas, I am not.

Well service the Cruiser Cris, add some NOS, and you will be flying:D:D
 
I wasn't watching tv on a ferry about a month ago when they were discussing a city somewhere that has agreed to allow fully automated transport loose on their streets already .
 
when you imagine that the first iphone was introduced only 9 years ago and how quick everybody and especially the youth adapted to the smartphone and social media possibilities, I don't think that people are against changes.
it will go the same way for autonomous cars. in 9 years time, they will be as common as the iphone is now.
(and all our diesel 80's will be banned by the ecological legislation)
 
I wasn't watching tv on a ferry about a month ago when they were discussing a city somewhere that has agreed to allow fully automated transport loose on their streets already .

I think that was Southampton Shayne. Will be interesting to see how that goes :think:
 
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