In my opinion the possibility is there for oil to drop further. In the past year, oil is now making it's third attempt to creep below the $40 barrel level. If it goes below this I can see it staying there for some time, but on the other hand if it fails to do so oil will steadily climb back up into the $55+ level quite easily. This is a analytical view, not fundamentally based. However, when oil was last at this level here in the US around January fuel was around $2 a gallon. Now, 7 months later, at the same crude price, it's $2.25. This just shows you how controlled price levels are and may point to a good reason why prices in the UK will not fall below the 1 pound threshold.